january february: Will the gains be followed by pain The chart below plots the S&P 500 against six different sentiment gauges, according to Market Watch. The dashed green line highlights how bearish investors were in January/February when the Profit Radar Report issued a buy signal at S&P 1,828 . Caption outside of wrapper for normal article images The arrows show how much more bullish investors are now compared to January red arrows indicate VIX and put/call ratio declines, a reflection of bullish sentiment . Based on investor sentiment, there's significant down side risk. Investor sentiment has gone from extremely bearish to extremely bullish. Do other indicators agree Liquidity There is a lot of money flowing into the stock market, which is a positive. Technicals Back in August, technical analysis strongly suggested a stock-market rally even more powerful than expected at the beginning of the year more detail available here . On Jan. 31, the Profit Radar Report published the 2016 S&P 500 Forecast with the below projection the projection is based on four key indicators liquidity, technical analysis, sentiment and seasonality . Caption outside of wrapper for normal article images As per the yellow projection, the year-end target was at 2,220, with resistance Fibonacci, trend line, trend channel at 2,250-2,290. In fact, on Sept. 25, the Profit Radar Report pointed out that our liquidity indicator already climbed to new all-time highs, even though the S&P 500 SPX, 0.13% did not detailed liquidity analysis available here . The stock market usually follows the money, and when money liquidity flows into stocks, stock prices will follow, which is what we've seen the last six weeks.
(news.financializer.com). As
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