Curve: Year and Recession Indicator

curve: The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note on Wednesday briefly traded below the yield on the 2-year note, marking an inversion of the yield curve a phenomenon seen as an often reliable recession indicator, albeit with an average lag of more than a year, according to Market Watch. In fact, the 10-year yield has traded below the 3-month T-bill yield since late May an inversion of that portion of the curve is seen by economists as an even more reliable recession indicator. Investors will be looking for clues in the week ahead that policy makers are listening, too. Read 5 things investors need to know about an inverted yield curve But the latest twist came amid a run of downbeat economic data out of Asia and Europe, as well as an intensifying U.S.-China trade war. At a very high level, people are really now genuinely concerned about a recession in the U.S. in the next two years, and I think that's fair, he said. Headline warning shot' The latest inversion doesn't guarantee doom, but it is a headline warning shot about what's been going on over the last few months, said Joe Mallen, chief investment officer at Helios Asset Management, which manages 16 billion in combined adviser assets, in an interview. (news.financializer.com). As reported in the news.